--For conducting resource adequacy studies, we synthesize multiple long-term wind power scenarios of distributed wind farms simultaneously by using the spatio-temporal features: spatial and temporal correlation, waveforms, marginal and ramp rates distributions of waveform, power spectral densities, and statistical characteristics. Generating the spatial correlation in scenarios requires the design of common factors for neighboring wind farms and antithetical factors for distant wind farms. The generalized dynamic factor model (GDFM) can extract the common factors through cross spectral density analysis, but it cannot closely imitate waveforms. The GAN can synthesize plausible samples representing the temporal correlation by verifying samples through a fake sample discriminator . T o combine the advantages of GDFM and GAN, we use the GAN to provide a filter that extracts dynamic factors with temporal information from the observation data, and we then apply this filter in the GDFM to represent both spatial and frequency correlations of plausible waveforms. Numerical tests on the combination of GDFM and GAN have demonstrated performance improvements over competing alternatives in synthesizing wind power scenarios from Australia, better realizing plausible statistical characteristics of actual wind power compared to alternatives such as the GDFM with a filter synthesized from distributions of actual dynamic filters and the GAN with direct synthesis without dynamic factors. ESOURCE adequacy means to maintain power system reliability by having sufficient capacity such that, even with failures or variability of resources, the probability of not being able to meet all load is sufficiently small [1]. System operators achieve resource adequacy of a power system by ensuring there is enough generation capacity [2]. In the case of intermittent energy resources, the effective load carrying capacity (ELCC) of the intermittent resource is the equivalent capacity of highly reliable generators that would result in the same probability of not being able to meet all load [3]. For example, the ELCC of wind power can be obtained by simulating power systems with long-term wind power scenarios with realistic ramping rates and marginal distributions [4]. Furthermore, the capacity factor and reserve margin contribution of wind power to the power system reliability can also be obtained by simulating a future power system by using realistic long-term wind power scenarios [5].

The global switch to renewable energy has passed a "positive tipping point", and solar and wind power will become even cheaper and more widespread, according to two reports. Last year, 74 percent of the growth in electricity generated worldwide was from wind, solar and other green sources, according to a report compiled by multiple United Nations agencies called Seizing the Moment of Opportunity. It was published on Tuesday. It found that 92.5 percent of all new electricity capacity added to the grid worldwide in 2024 came from renewables. Meanwhile, sales of electric vehicles were up from 500,000 in 2015 to more than 17 million in 2024.

AI power demand is growing unprecedentedly thanks to the high power density of AI compute and the emerging inferencing workload. On the supply side, abundant wind power is waiting for grid access in interconnection queues. In this light, this paper argues bringing AI workload to modular compute clusters co-located in wind farms. Our deployment right-sizing strategy makes it economically viable to deploy more than 6 million high-end GPUs today that could consume cheap, green power at its source. We built Heron, a cross-site software router, that could efficiently leverage the complementarity of power generation across wind farms by routing AI inferencing workload around power drops. Using 1-week ofcoding and conversation production traces from Azure and (real) variable wind power traces, we show how Heron improves aggregate goodput of AI compute by up to 80% compared to the state-of-the-art.

Accurate wind speed prediction is crucial for designing and selecting sites for offshore wind farms. This paper investigates the effectiveness of various machine learning models in predicting offshore wind power for a site near the Gulf of Mexico by analyzing meteorological data. After collecting and preprocessing meteorological data, nine different input feature combinations were designed to assess their impact on wind power predictions at multiple heights. The results show that using wind speed as the output feature improves prediction accuracy by approximately 10% compared to using wind power as the output. In addition, the improvement of multi-feature input compared with single-feature input is not obvious mainly due to the poor correlation among key features and limited generalization ability of models. These findings underscore the importance of selecting appropriate output features and highlight considerations for using machine learning in wind power forecasting, offering insights that could guide future wind power prediction models and conversion techniques.

Local climate information is crucial for impact assessment and decision-making, yet coarse global climate simulations cannot capture small-scale phenomena. However, to preserve physical properties, estimating spatio-temporally coherent high-resolution weather dynamics for multiple variables across long time horizons is crucial. We present a novel generative approach that uses a score-based diffusion model trained on high-resolution reanalysis data to capture the statistical properties of local weather dynamics. After training, we condition on coarse climate model data to generate weather patterns consistent with the aggregate information. As this inference task is inherently uncertain, we leverage the probabilistic nature of diffusion models and sample multiple trajectories. We evaluate our approach with high-resolution reanalysis information before applying it to the climate model downscaling task. We then demonstrate that the model generates spatially and temporally coherent weather dynamics that align with global climate output. Numerical simulations based on the Navier-Stokes equations, discretized over time and space, are fundamental to understanding weather patterns, climate variability, and climate change. Stateof-the-art numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, which primarily focus on atmospheric processes, can accurately resolve small-scale dynamics within the Earth system, providing fine-scale spatial and temporal weather patterns at resolutions on the order of kilometers [1]. However, the substantial computational resources required for these models render them impractical for simulating the extended time scales associated with climatic changes. In contrast, Earth System Models (ESMs), such as those included in the CMIP6 project [2], incorporate a broader range of processes--including atmospheric, oceanic, and biogeochemical interactions--while operating on coarser spatial scales. This coarse resolution limits the ability of ESMs to fully capture small-scale processes, requiring parameterizations to represent unresolved dynamics as functions of resolved variables. This work introduces a probabilistic downscaling pipeline that jointly estimates spatio-temporally consistent weather dynamics from ESM simulations on multiple variables. The framework is built around a score-based diffusion model and can be understood as a combination of four modules, which can each be adjusted independently of the others. This schematic outlines the framework.

An accurate and timely assessment of wind speed and energy output allows an efficient planning and management of this resource on the power grid. Wind energy, especially at high resolution, calls for the development of nonlinear statistical models able to capture complex dependencies in space and time. This work introduces a Convolutional Echo State AutoencodeR (CESAR), a spatio-temporal, neural network-based model which first extracts the spatial features with a deep convolutional autoencoder, and then models their dynamics with an echo state network. We also propose a two-step approach to also allow for computationally affordable inference, while also performing uncertainty quantification. We focus on a high-resolution simulation in Riyadh (Saudi Arabia), an area where wind farm planning is currently ongoing, and show how CESAR is able to provide improved forecasting of wind speed and power for proposed building sites by up to 17% against the best alternative methods.

Wind power forecasting plays a critical role in modern energy systems, facilitating the integration of renewable energy sources into the power grid. Accurate prediction of wind energy output is essential for managing the inherent intermittency of wind power, optimizing energy dispatch, and ensuring grid stability. This paper proposes the use of Deep Neural Network (DNN)-based predictive models that leverage climate datasets, including wind speed, atmospheric pressure, temperature, and other meteorological variables, to improve the accuracy of wind power simulations. In particular, we focus on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) datasets, which provide climate projections, as inputs for training the DNN models. These models aim to capture the complex nonlinear relationships between the CMIP-based climate data and actual wind power generation at wind farms located in Germany. Our study compares various DNN architectures, specifically Multilayer Perceptron (MLP), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks, and Transformer-enhanced LSTM models, to identify the best configuration among these architectures for climate-aware wind power simulation. The implementation of this framework involves the development of a Python package (CADNN) designed to support multiple tasks, including statistical analysis of the climate data, data visualization, preprocessing, DNN training, and performance evaluation. We demonstrate that the DNN models, when integrated with climate data, significantly enhance forecasting accuracy. This climate-aware approach offers a deeper understanding of the time-dependent climate patterns that influence wind power generation, providing more accurate predictions and making it adaptable to other geographical regions.

In the past decades, clean and renewable energy has gained increasing attention due to a global effort on carbon footprint reduction. In particular, Saudi Arabia is gradually shifting its energy portfolio from an exclusive use of oil to a reliance on renewable energy, and, in particular, wind. Modeling wind for assessing potential energy output in a country as large, geographically diverse and understudied as Saudi Arabia is a challenge which implies highly non-linear dynamic structures in both space and time. To address this, we propose a spatio-temporal model whose spatial information is first reduced via an energy distance-based approach and then its dynamical behavior is informed by a sparse and stochastic recurrent neural network (Echo State Network). Finally, the full spatial data is reconstructed by means of a non-stationary stochastic partial differential equation-based approach. Our model can capture the fine scale wind structure and produce more accurate forecasts of both wind speed and energy in lead times of interest for energy grid management and save annually as much as one million dollar against the closest competitive model.

The increasing severity of climate change necessitates an urgent transition to renewable energy sources, making the large-scale adoption of wind energy crucial for mitigating environmental impact. However, the inherent uncertainty of wind power poses challenges for grid stability, underscoring the need for accurate wind energy prediction models to enable effective power system planning and operation. While many existing studies on wind power prediction focus on short-term forecasting, they often overlook the importance of long-term predictions. Long-term wind power forecasting is essential for effective power grid dispatch and market transactions, as it requires careful consideration of weather features such as wind speed and direction, which directly influence power output. Consequently, methods designed for short-term predictions may lead to inaccurate results and high computational costs in long-term settings. To adress these limitations, we propose a novel approach called Hybrid Frequency Feature Enhancement Inverted Transformer (Hiformer). Hiformer introduces a unique structure that integrates signal decomposition technology with weather feature extraction technique to enhance the modeling of correlations between meteorological conditions and wind power generation. Additionally, Hiformer employs an encoder-only architecture, which reduces the computational complexity associated with long-term wind power forecasting. Compared to the state-of-the-art methods, Hiformer: (i) can improve the prediction accuracy by up to 52.5\%; and (ii) can reduce computational time by up to 68.5\%.

Accurate prediction of wind power is essential for the grid integration of this intermittent renewable source and aiding grid planners in forecasting available wind capacity. Spatial differences lead to discrepancies in climatological data distributions between two geographically dispersed regions, consequently making the prediction task more difficult. Thus, a prediction model that learns from the data of a particular climatic region can suffer from being less robust. A deep neural network (DNN) based domain adaptive approach is proposed to counter this drawback. Effective weather features from a large set of weather parameters are selected using a random forest approach. A pre-trained model from the source domain is utilized to perform the prediction task, assuming no source data is available during target domain prediction. The weights of only the last few layers of the DNN model are updated throughout the task, keeping the rest of the network unchanged, making the model faster compared to the traditional approaches. The proposed approach demonstrates higher accuracy ranging from 6.14% to even 28.44% compared to the traditional non-adaptive method.